This study examines the effect of TimeZup – a lever pulling strategy designed to reduce gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut.
A series of ARIMA and dynamically complete models are estimated to determine if TimeZup was associated with any significant changes in New Haven's murder, firearm robbery and firearm assault rates. A quasi-experimental design is also used to compare New Haven to six, similarly situated cities in the Northeastern United States.
The results indicate that New Haven experienced a significant decrease in its firearm robbery rate in the summer of 1997 – a date that preceded TimeZup but coincided with other lever pulling strategies implemented by the New Haven Police Department.
Although an older program, TimeZup was not rigorously analyzed. After the conclusion of the program, basic pre- and post-comparisons suggested TimeZup was effective. Using a rigorous methodology, this study shows it was not. This study points out that interventions such as TimeZup often coincide with pre-existing crime reduction strategies. Evaluators should account for those pre-existing strategies because it may be those strategies – and not the intervention being examined – that are impacting crime rates.
